So, I'm not sure if anyone is even reading this blog anymore, but I thought this warranted posting. All I have to say is...
Oh crap
This reporters 'sources', and the fact that the information was attained 'last week' but only posted today make me question if this story is real or just hype. Either way, this line made me laugh.
"The Israelis believe that Iran’s retaliation would be constrained by fear of a second strike if it were to launch its Shehab-3 ballistic missiles at Israel."
Sure... wanna bet?
2 comments:
This is difficult to judge. The US is Israel's only real ally. There is a lot of anti-Israel sentiment in the world. A nuclear strike would make it much worse. Still, I agree with the Israeli assessment as to the threat against Israel from a nuclear Iran. Iran considers terrorism to be an integral part of international politics. The Israeli threat will be around for a couple of years. If the international community is ineffective against Iran's nuclear program Israel will strike. Although Israel is generally a burden with no benefit to the US in this case an Israel strike will benefit the US. The international community will blame the US for not reining in Israel. We will blame the international community for no taking forceful action against nuclear proliferation. No clear political winner but in the end the international community will take more forceful action to control nuclear weapons.
What do you think?
I would have to imagine that plans for this sort of thing are discussed and drawl up, but I would also question whether or not this person actually has sources.
As you said Iran considers terrorism a form of foreign policy, so the obvious strategy is for Iran to use nuclear weapons on Isreal, and possibly other countries through terrorist groups. My question would be, what do they have to gain? I know it's popular to think they are just a violent people, but it's uncommon for higher ups to commit acts like that where there is nothing to be gained. I think in order for them to use the weapons there would be some sort of plan where they gain something, but it's hard to see think of a situation where they would gain.
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